Skyrocketing Demand: Air Cargo Records Stunning 18.4% YoY Surge in January

Air cargo demand increased by a “remarkable” 18.4% year on year in January – the second month in a row of double-digit percentage increases.

IATA data shows that as well cargo tonne kms (CTK) increasing in January, available capacity was up 14.6% year on year as belly space continued to be added to the market and the cargo load factor improved by 1.4 percentage points to 45.7%.

CTKs for the month were also 2.8% up on pre-Covid 2019 levels.
The airline association said the increase in demand was the highest registered since summer 2021 when the world was in recovery mode following the Covid pandemic.
The increase was attributed to rising e-commerce demand, although last year the Lunar New Year holiday took place in mid-January meaning factories were closed in the second half of the month.
There were also reports of some modal shift because of the Red Sea shipping crisis.
IATA director general Willie Walsh said: “This is a strong start to the year. In particular, the booming e-commerce sector is continuing to help air cargo demand to trend above growth in both trade and production since the last quarter of 2023.
“The counterweight to this good news is uncertainty over how China’s economic slowdown will unfold.”
IATA added that air cargo demand growth outpaced trade and production.
Global cross-border trade increased by 1% in December compared to the previous month but was down 0.2% year on year.
The manufacturing output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved to 50.3, surpassing the 50 mark for the first time in eight months, indicating expansion.
The new export orders PMI also saw an increase to 48.8, but remains below the critical 50 threshold, suggesting a “continuing yet decelerating decline in global exports”.
“Inflation in major economies continued to ease from its peak in terms of Consumer Price Index (CPI) in January, reaching 3.1% in both the US and in the EU, and 2.1% in Japan,” IATA added.
“China’s CPI, however, indicated deflation for the fourth consecutive month, raising concerns of an economic slowdown. China’s negative inflation rate of -0.8% was the lowest since the Global Financial Crisis in 2009.”
Looking at regional performance, Asia Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes increase by 24.6% year on year in January.
“Carriers in the region benefited from ongoing growth in international CTKs on three major trade lanes: Africa-Asia (+52.5%), Middle East-Asia (+29.5%) and Europe-Asia (+27.5%),” IATA said.
North American carriers registered a 9.3% increase in cargo volumes.
IATA said that carriers in the region benefitted from growth on the North America-Asia trade lane (+17.1%) and North America-Europe trade lane (+3.5%).
European carriers saw their air cargo volumes increase by 16.4% in January led by demand on intra-Europe and Europe-Asia.
Middle Eastern carriers had the strongest performance in January 2024, with a 25.9% year-on-year increase in cargo volumes.
“Carriers in the region benefited from growth in the Middle East–Asia (+29.5%) and Middle East–Europe markets (+46.1%),” IATA said.
Latin American carriers experienced a 13.4% increase in cargo volumes compared to January 2023 and African airlines saw their air cargo volumes increase by 17%.
in January 2024, much improved compared to December’s performance (-1.2%). Carriers in the region benefitted from strong growth on the Africa-Asia trade lane. Capacity in January was 19.4% above January 2023 levels.