EUROCONTROL Forecasts 15.4 Million Flights by 2050, Net-Zero Pathway Challenging
EUROCONTROL has released its long-term forecasts for flights and CO2 emissions, projecting significant growth in European aviation over the next 25 years. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact, flights in Europe are expected to reach 15.4 million by 2050, a 52% increase from 2023 levels and 39% more than in 2019.
The aviation sector is committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, aligning with European and ICAO objectives. Key strategies include the development of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), advancements in fleet and technology, and modernization of airports and ATM operations. Out-of-sector measures will also be necessary to meet these goals, with financial incentives and regulatory support playing crucial roles.
Traffic Scenarios
In the most likely scenario, the European Civil Aviation Conference Area (ECAC) will see 15.4 million flights by 2050, with an average annual growth rate of 1.6% from 2023 to 2050. Major airports operating near capacity will continue to pressure the network.
Path to Net-Zero
Achieving net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 will require significant efforts. Fleet renewal with fuel-efficient aircraft, development of electric and hydrogen-powered planes, and innovations in airport and ATM infrastructure are essential. SAFs are promising but require increased production and cost reduction. Out-of-sector measures, such as carbon offsetting and capture, will be critical to bridging the gap to net-zero.
CO2 Emissions Forecast
Without significant measures, ECAC flights could emit 271 Mt CO2 by 2050. To reach net-zero, savings are needed from:
- Fleet and technology: 53 Mt (20%)
- Operations and infrastructure: 27 Mt (10%)
- SAF: 90 Mt (33%)
The remaining 101 Mt (37%) must be addressed through out-of-sector measures.
