Electric Trucks Surge: Market Outlook to 2045
Electric trucks market is experiencing significant transformation as various regions ramp up efforts to reduce emissions.
IDTechEx’s latest report, Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks 2025-2045, provides a comprehensive analysis of this shift, highlighting the rise of battery-electric trucks (BEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), and fuel-cell trucks (FCEVs).
These vehicles play a critical role in tackling the transport sector’s CO2 emissions, which amounted to 1.8 billion tonnes in 2022—approximately 25% of the global total.
Key regions—China, Europe, and the US—are seeing different adoption rates of electric trucks, with China currently leading in sales. In 2023, Chinese OEMs, including SANY and Dongfeng, dominated the global market, with over 34,000 heavy-duty EV trucks sold. In contrast, the US market remains slow, with electric trucks accounting for just 0.1% of new truck sales. Meanwhile, Europe is witnessing rapid growth, with Volvo Trucks capturing around 70% of the heavy-duty EV truck market share.
Government regulations are driving this transition, with ambitious targets for emissions reduction. The EU, for example, has set stricter emission standards, aiming for a 45% reduction by 2030, while the US is targeting up to 60% zero-emission vehicle sales in some segments by 2032. These regulations aim to phase out diesel trucks and accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles, although challenges remain due to factors such as payload limits, charging infrastructure, and the high initial cost of electric trucks.
Fuel-cell trucks are an alternative solution, addressing some limitations of BEVs, such as longer refueling times and heavier batteries. Hydrogen fuel cells offer faster refueling and greater range, but the technology faces hurdles like the lack of widespread hydrogen infrastructure and high production costs. However, hydrogen internal combustion engines (H2ICE) show promise, with companies like MAN Truck & Bus planning to produce hydrogen-powered trucks in 2025.
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Despite these challenges, the EV truck market is expected to grow significantly over the next two decades, with substantial investments in battery technologies, charging infrastructure, and alternative powertrains. IDTechEx’s forecast provides a detailed outlook on truck sales, battery demand, and market value across different regions, offering valuable insights into the future of the commercial vehicle sector.
